Sweden has a problem, Europe an even bigger one and a visit well worth it

Ain't life weird. Greece issued for the first time since years new government bonds and they were oversubscribed 6 times! One of our Belgian top economists even found it necessary to state on national tv that "Greece is the only one that is still offering a reasonable interest". The interest he refers to is 6% and yes that's a lot more than anyone else but, and he didn't mention that did he, Greece is still virtually bankrupt. The only reason that banks are buying the bonds is because of the interest rate and because they have seen that European politicians are not going to let any euro-country default. In contrast Sweden, which has one of the healthiest government finances in the world, had difficulties placing its government bonds. Everyone who is not blinded by the hunt for interest will see that this situation is crazy. Question is: how long will it last before it blows up (again) in our face?


"Human rights, democracy and the rule of law in Europe now face a crisis unprecedented since the 
end of the Cold War. Serious violations – including corruption, immunity from prosecution, 
impunity, human trafficking, racism, hate speech and discrimination – are on the rise throughout the 
continent. People’s rights are also threatened by the impact of the economic crisis and growing inequalities. 
The Council of Europe and its member States must act urgently to stop this erosion of fundamental rights.": this is the opening paragraph of Thorbjorn Jagland, secretary general of the Council of Europe, in a just released report titled: State of democracy, human rights and the rule of law in Europe.
In the document they list following shocking numbers:

• Discrimination against ethnic and national minorities: 39 of 47 states
• Overcrowded prisons: 30 states
• Corruption: 26 states
• Police misconduct: 23 states
• Violation of human rights of immigrants and asylum seekers: 20 states
• Human trafficking: 11 states
• Limited freedom of speech: 8 states

In addition they found countries where the judicial system is completely corrupt and they fear that unemployment and poverty in some countries will drive the population to extremism and confrontation.

Yes I know the membership of the Council of Europe is larger than the EU. But with scores like 39 or 30 states out of 49, many EU countries are involved too. None have been named though because of... political pressure. Freedom of speech???

I was scrolling through some photo albums and came across a trip to Seoul in 2007. Every aviation enthusiast has heard about the Smithsonian in Washington DC and, if in the neighbourhood, has visited it (like I did). But I can recommend the Korean War Museum too. Tragic as the Korean military situation has been over the past 50 odd years, they do have a smashing collection! What else would you call following line-up: O-1G Bird Dog, S-2 Tracker, KT-1, T-37, C-46, C-123, H-5H, MiG-15, OH-23G and so much more! So when you do find yourself in that corner of the world, go and have a look, it is well worth it.

O-1G Bird Dog   Picture Kris Van der Plas

OH-23G   Picture Kris Van der Plas

MiG-15    Picture Kris Van der Plas

H-5H   Picture Kris Van der Plas

S-2 Tracker   Picture Kris Van der Plas

C-123   Picture Kris Van der Plas

C-46   Picture Kris Van der Plas

T-37   Picture Kris Van der Plas

KT-1   Picture Kris Van der Plas

The winner takes it all, God 'Elp All Of Us

It's the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. For that occasion Oxfam issued a publication titled 'Working for the Few'. This is the picture that goes with it:

If that doesn't make you stop and think, how about this:

• Almost half of the world’s wealth is now owned by just one percent of the population.

And

• Seven out of ten people live in countries where economic inequality has increased in the last 30 years.

You can read all about it here.
With growing inequality putting more and more stress on the social fabric that holds nations together, this does not bode well for our collective future.

One more statistic from Davos: Chinese investment in the UK in the past 18 months was equal to that of the previous 30 years.

For some reason this week there were some human interest articles about 100 years of commercial aviation. I say 'for some reason' because the first scheduled flight happened on January 1 1914, so our dear journo's are lagging about 20 days behind. That first flight was between  St Petersburg and Tampa in Florida and was operated by SPT Airboat Line. Airboat because the aircraft operating the route was a Benoist Type XIV. It made me think back to those exciting pioneering days of aviation and about the legendary flights of the Vickers Vimy. It was the first airplane that made a successful transatlantic crossing (June 15, 1919). John Alcock and Arthur-Written-Brown were the pilots. After having crossed the Atlantic John Alcock said "Yesterday I was in America... and I am the first man in Europe to say that." Statements like that make my world stop for a moment!

Later that same year the Vimy (registration G-EAO God 'Elp All Of Us) also flew from London to Adelaide. They left Hounslow Heath (now Heathrow) on November 12 1919 and reached Darwin on December 10, 1919. They continued on to Adelaide the home town of the Smith brother's (the pilots). If that ain't adventure, nothing is.

I saw a replica of the Vimy at Farnborough in 1996. The replica repeated the 1919 flight in 1994. Again quite an accomplishment! There is a magnificent book about the 1994 journey of which I have a copy signed by Peter McMillan one of the two pilots (the other one was Lang Kidby).

Vicker Vimy G-EAOU  Farnborough 1996

Vicker Vimy G-EAOU  Farnborough 1996

Vicker Vimy G-EAOU  Farnborough 1996

That's fiction, we are doing jolly well and all too real wing walking

The dark days between Christmas and New Year are a great time to do some reading. So I embarked on a heavy book (literally and figuratively) titled 'Breaking the code of history'. A beautifully glossy publication written by an interesting guy. Dyslectic as a child David Murrin studied physics and became a geophysicist. He spent two years in Papua New Guinea searching for oil in the jungle where he had interesting encounters with local tribes. He then ended up at the London stock exchange on behalf of JP Morgan. Those of you who wonder about that career switch should know that in those days, banks were on the lookout for mathematicians and physicists to calculate the best way how to trade. The author also has a life long interest in history. And all of that background is felt throughout the book. The first 370 pages (yes...) are a walk through history using numerous examples to prove the author's premise on how empires rise and fall. Empires on large and small scales (he saw the same dynamics in the jungle tribes, the stock exchange, countries, nations and our whole planet and he draws a parallel with fractals). The second part of the book he looks into the future and gives us some predictions on what could happen. This is interesting because the book is from 2010 so 3 years on, one can already get a feeling on how right or wrong he is. Without giving you any spoilers, let's just say that my scepticism grew whilst I was progressing through the book. First of all, he only remotely touches upon the influence of new technology on our future and he barely takes new social structures (through social media) into account. But what really threw me is that he applied basic mathematical principles to social science. His basic premise of rises and falls of empires is represented by a gaussian curve. That is of course utter nonsense because it is a fact that gaussian mathematics work perfectly in physics but are completely useless and wrong when they are applied to social science and economy. So I had an interesting read but believe the whole theory is based on one big flaw. Maybe the author sees himself as a Hari Seldon, the 'hero' in Isaac Asimov's foundation trilogy who calculated to the second the rises and falls of empires for millennia to come. That is fiction of course and it will remain so.

We had some good year wishes from our European President Herman Van Rompuy who said that the crisis is behind us (what else would you expect him saying with European elections in 5 months where anti-European parties may gain a lot of ground?). Mario Draghi almost immediately responded that although the crisis is less acute a lot of work still needs to be done for things to really settle down (he means: politicians you have done nothing with the time I bought for you!). As illustration a graph from @komileva showing the debt as a % of GDP comparing 2010 to 2014 (based on the IMF Oct forecast). We are doing jolly well...

I came across an intriguing picture whilst I was strolling twitter and did some research. Yes that is a man standing on a DC-8 taking the art of wing-walking to a whole new level.

Rick Rojatt – The Human Fly did this in 1976 when he mounted himself atop a Douglas DC-8 and was flown at speeds in excess of 280 mph at 5000ft (watch the full 23 min movie here). Wing walking has been (almost) as old as aviation itself and you can still see it at airshows. There is a British team (here's the website - different colour scheme today) who does the Summer airshow circuit. I saw them a couple of years ago at Beauvechain (EBBE). Not DC-8s but Boeing Stearmans and impressive nevertheless! (Yes the lady is really wing-walking in the second picture, have a close look in between the wings.)

Happy New Year!

Failing nations, they spotted me and a dramatic low pass

I just finished reading 'Why nations fail'. A bit of a struggle I must admit.
If you are into history: read it. Bear in mind however that history is being told from a very Anglo-Saxon world-view. If that bothers you (like it did with me), still read it but try not to be too irritated by it. There is some good food for thought in the thesis they propose as to why nations fail. Summarised in one sentence it would be something line: extractive economic institutions that are structured to extract resources from the many by the few and are synergistically linked to extractive political institutions which concentrate power in the hands of few.
A bit of a mouthful isn't it (now you know why the read was such a struggle). But it does make some sense. Even though the authors say several times that prosperity is not eternal in a given nation, they do give the impression that in our western world we will prosper on for the next century. And that's what worries me. The authors seem not to have grasped the idea that established democracies with inclusive political and economic institutions can fail too (when they become too top-down heavy). If you want to understand really why nations fail and ignore the sort of colonial Anglo-Saxon speak of this book, I can recommend the very intelligent book 'The collapse of complex societies' by Tainter. I'm not going to spoil it for you by explaining here what it says, but if, no when!, you read it, you will better understand what is happening in our world today.










Since this Summer, the Belgian Airforce seems to have put a low level flying route above my village. It coincides with me starting this blog. Is the Belgian military keeping, NSA-wise, an eye on me ;-)? It is fun though, I used to watch Starfighters, Mirage V's and F-16's on low level flying above my parents place when I was a kid, and now they seem to have found me again! Well the F-16's at least... Just for fun a picture of an F-16 at the 20102 airshow in Beauvechain. Whenever I catch one above my house I'll post it as well.

Talking about low level flying... I came across some fascinating video's of low passes. I know what you are thinking: we've all seen it, all of us who fly have done it (admit it, it is fun). But these are just mind boggling. You remember that TAP A300 routine from a couple of years ago (see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26H-WzIe858)? That was impressive. Here is another one unknown to me before. This time a 747-300 from Aerosur, and honestly, when it banks away, it would have scared the living daylights out of me : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6s0pBqIriw