The future decides the past, the most beautiful curve and remove before flight

It's been a long time since I last wrote something. And no, it's not the unfolding of the Greek drama that inspired me now, it's the movie at the bottom of this blog. But to keep with tradition I'll start with the Greek drama.

Since 2010 when the Greek crisis errupted political forces have done everything within their power to offset the economic and financial reality and keep Greece afloat and in the euro. Five years of imposed actions on Greece has not saved the country but it has devestated its society, threw a big part of its population into poverty and has wasted a generation. The economic parameters of the country are worse than that of a country at war. Young potentials have long fled to countries of hope. Regardless of today (or tomorrow) bringing a political solution, one has to question whatever happened to the European ideal of solidarity. Is this the Europe that we ahve all been working towards? To top it all, it becomes increasingly difficult to find media reporting in a balanced way about Greece. It's easy to find the unexceptable extravaganza instituted in Greece since decades mostly for the happy few. Just do a simple google search and the results list will overflow. It's also easy to find personal attacks on various political leaders. But a clear unbiased stock-taking article of the actual situation? It exists but it's a rare find.

Something else that threw me over the past weeks was this bit of news: Scientists show future events decide what happens in the past. Luckily it's about quantum physics and thus not what we experience in our every day life (I hope!). The digital journal reported: "An experiment by Australian scientists has proven that what happens to particles in the past is only decided when they are observed and measured in the future. Until such time, reality is just an abstraction." You can read all about it here.

Last week I was in Le Bourget having a rather busy week. Two pictures stood out for me: the most beautiful curve in aviation today (it's the Airbus 350 winglet)

and a picture tweeted by @AirbusGroupLIVE: Paris Air Show as seen from space! Don't look for me though, I was stuck inside most of the time...

Last but not least I came across this movie. It's a testimony to piloting soft skills: surprise factor, assessing the situation, taking the correct action, land safely and... never ever take off without a thorough walk around!

The Greek drama, all eyes on the Brazilians and the gravitational law of money

I’m writing this as the Greek drama is unfolding with new twists to the plot as days pass by. The Greek drama started about 4 years ago when the then government came clean and said they had cooked the books. So one may argue that the mess they are in they have brought onto themselves. You could also argue that the other EU countries knew perfectly well that the Greek accounts were doctored, didn’t care less and accepted Greece as a euromember anyway, so we are equally to blame. Fact is that since the dirt hit the fan in 2011 the remedy imposed on Greece didn’t work. On the contrary, it has devastated the Greek society. So when I saw a tweet from Tsirpas just before the start of one of the Eurogroup meetings saying "At tomorrow’s Eurogroup mtg, @yanisvaroufakis will be representing #Greece’s 1.5 mil unemployed, 2.5 mil poor & 300K young who moved abroad", I must admit that I understand where he is coming from. That’s not to say that I understand where he is going, but when you just won the elections with a landslide victory and subsequent polls show that 75% of the population is backing the stance you take towards the EU, it's a legitimate question to ask where the EU gets the authority from to tell Greece’s elected politicians they should turn back and tell their voters and supporters that all that campaign rhetoric was just a bit of fun but they weren’t actually serious and that they’ll continue on the very same path that their predecessors and the EU have led them on ie directly into poverty and social destruction.

Back in the aviation world we’ve seen two first flights that have been rather underreported. On February 6, the Dassault Falcon 8X lifted off. This top of the range executive jet is destined for business jet operators, governments, companies and the happy few.

A couple of days earlier on February 3, the Embraer KC-390 took flight for the first time. It’ll be interesting to see if it can make a dent in the market replacing the C-130 Hercules as the world’s most important military transporter.  The C-130J isn’t selling much anymore, the A400M is a size bigger and frankly no one can be enthusiast about the sales so far. So all eyes on the Brazilians!

When driving home from a meeting the other day I heard Keith Ayers on the radio and that brought a big smile on my face when I heard the lyrics "Your money goes back to the rich". I guess you can call this the financial gravitational law. Once money reaches a certain critical amount, it develops its own gravitational field that attrackts other money. That gravitational field is a bit different from the one we know from Earth because the financial gravitational field is infite. The Earth's gravitational field reduces with the  distance from Earth and when you get out of its reach you experience no pull back to our planet anymore. You can also accelerate to escape speed, a speed high enough that spins you outside the Earth's gravitational field. The financial gravitational field is omnipresent. It does not matter where the other money is located, all money is attracted. As a result of that infinite financial gravitational field there is also no escape velocity. So you just have to accept which way your money is heading whilst listening to “Money Money Money” and singing aloud:

Ooh, money, money, ooh, money, money
Where does it go?
Down in some bottomless ditch
Ooh, money, money, ooh money, money

Guess you all know
Your money goes back to the rich, la ti da
Your money goes back to the rich

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WbJlXz2Tdk

Swiss surprise, broken laws and a pink Learjet

I know it has been ages since I blogged. The developments of the past weeks and especially yesterday compel me to draw your attention to the events. And no, this blog isn't about terrorism. So what am I referring to?

Yesterday the Swiss central bank let the CHF loose. Finance you say? Yes finance but with global consequences. You all know that since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks worldwide have thrown all care and common sense out of the window and are using their own equivalent of nuclear weapons to keep their currencies and economy adrift. The US and Japan have created enormous amounts of money (and still there is no inflation, isn't that strange), the ECB reportedly is on the brink of going down the same path next week, and no one is blinking an eye. Except for the Swiss. They blinked yesterday.

During the euro-crisis many were running out of the euro into the CHF which led to the CHF quickly becomming more expensive. As an expensive CHF is problematic for the Swiss economy, the Swiss central bank interfered and decided to keep the Euro/CHF rate at 1,2. For years they have done this by constantly interfering in the exchange rate. And yesterday they stopped.
This was the result:

On one day the CHF became 15% more expensive, so the Swiss export suffered suddenly a 15% hurddle. Just check the Nestlé shares what it means.

So why did they do this? Why does a central bank suddenly punish its own economy with 15% in one day? They must have a very good reason, they surely know something we don't. Some say it is because next week the ECB will start the printing press and the Swiss don't want to follow suit (which they would have to if they wanted to keep the CHF at an unchanged 1,2 exchange rate). I don't know if that is the reason, future will  tell. Fact is that the Swiss move took everyone by surprise. Yesterday we were all turkeys (Taleb afficionades will get this). Even the IMF was not informed and quite appalled that they were not. Here are some quotes from Lagarde:

“This was a bit of a surprise…I find it a bit surprising that he (Swiss central bank chief Thomas Jordan) did not contact me, but you know, we’ll check on that.”

According to Lagarde, Thomas Jordan may not have warned European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi and others about the move, either: “I would hope that it was communicated with other colleagues from central banks. I’m not sure it was.”

There you go, Switzerland surpised the world.

Some other development that is underreported in the news (and that is an understatement) is the situation in Greece. Next week they have elections and the party that is likely to win has said that they will reform taxes and renegotiate the national debt. Result: people don't pay taxes anymore. Why should they if the new government would abandon those taxes? It surely is a bit silly to still pay them now. Secondly, if Greece would leave the euro (I know euro politicans keep on telling that the law forbids it - but hey politicians never break laws do they) then new Drachma would quickly and sharply devaluate. So any Greek who believes the Grexit is a possibility what does (s)he do? Go to the bank and withdraw all savings in euro. That's what I would do too. When banks run out of cash as a consequence they can ask the ECB to use the ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assist). That's what Greek banks had to do at the height of the eurocrisis and two Greek systemic banks asked for the ECB ELA on Wednesday as well. 3 billion € was withdrawn in December and almost the same amount already this month.


So there you go: Swiss lets its CHF appreciate with 15% in one day, the ECB may start money creation next week, and the Greeks are preparing for the possibility of a Grexit. But do we read this in our national press? Nope. Does anyone care to explain the consequences of this on a global, European or local level? Nope. Does someone explain what it means for our personal wealth (irrespective of the size of that wealth)? Nope.


But lets end this blog in good tradition with some aviation stuff. I came across a movie which made my eyebrows raise. It's a Learjet cutting a ribbon being held up by two guys on flyboards. Crazy crazy crazy. Just watch. But the thing that threw me most is: who in his right mind paints his Learjet pink???

Bright sparks, wow and a cute little thing

After last week's doom and gloom I thought I'ld better make up for it.
Driving to work early in the morning this time of year means that I'm in my car before sunrise. The day is breaking but the sun not up yet which results in vibrant colours. Nope, no pictures, I'm driving :-)

Two bright "stars" were clearly visible against the blue sky and these two "stars" were very close together making me conclude that they probably weren't stars as it were the only two heavenly objects visible (except for the moon). The next day they were still there but a bit further apart so I deduced that they had to be planets. But which? A quick internet search learned me that it was Jupiter and Venus:

Monday 18 August 05:45 (local): Venus is 11,9' north of Jupiter (-1,3m). They are closest at 07:10,at a height of 21°. The planets are in ENE about 8° above the horizon, 12' separation.

Those of you who saw it too may have marvelled at it just like I did. Staring at the infinity of universe always is very comforting to me.


Talking about the universe, here's a picture from astronaut Reid Wiseman currently serving as flight engineer aboard the International Space Station for Expedition 41. If that ain't "wow" I don't know what is...

The US celebrated Aviation Day this week. Wiki learned me that it was established in 1939 by Franklin Roosevelt, who issued a presidential proclamation which designated the anniversary of Orville Wright's birthday to be National Aviation Day.So let's celebrate as well with a picture from the unlimited Farnborough source. This time it is from this year's event, and I chose something that epitomises the joy of flying: the Starduster. It's a nice little homebuilt, if you want one, you can order plans and parts here.

And to get you into the right mood, here's the brave show it put up at Farnborough:

Do you have the stomach for it, promisses promisses and backfire

To all of you whom believe we are living in countries that defend the basic principles of human rights, freedom, privacy and democracy, please read this book: 'No Place To Hide' by Glenn Greenwald. I bought it in a whim and didn't regret it. Put all your prejudices and everything you heared about Snowden aside and read it with an open mind. Then draw your conclusions. But beware: you have to have the stomach to do it because reading it risks making you sick.





In the mean time Rasmussen, NATO's boss, tweeted this yesterday whilst there was unclarity about Ukraine and Russian fighting:

Things like that make me worry, really worry. They all hapilly come over to Belgium to commemorate the start 100 years ago of WWI and make speeches who horrible it all was, but they don't seem to grasp that they are playing with fire once again.


In the mean time on the financial markets, George Soros is making one big bet on stocks crashing. When people like him do that, people tend to take notice. When that news broke it became official that Germany and France are in a recession (not that they call it like that). The Portuguese bank which went belly up was bailed out by the taxpayers and broken into a 'good bank' and a 'bad bank'. Compare this with what Mr Barroso said 6 months ago: "Banks, not taxpayers, will carry the cost for their own mistakes". Right copy that Mr Barroso. Reality is yet again different from the statements and promisses made by politicians.

This is turning out a rather dark blog isn't it...

So let's brighten it up. One of my friends (@Arielshocron) posted some wonderful pictures of a Tu-22M on twitter. I know, it's a Soviet bomber. That's not why I put it up, I do this beacuse for us aviation nuts it is an emblemic airplane and a very beautiful one as well. I saw it only once back in 1992 in Farnborough. Here is the proof!

Just a question, social media prevents war, byebye US Dollar and some happiness

Lots has happened in the world since my last blog. And not much of it is good.
MH17 went down, Gaza is under attack, Libya becomes more unstable by the day, Syria goes from bad to worse,  Argentina was pushed into bankruptcy by a US court. I could write pages and pages about every single catasptophy but the net is already overflowing with propaganda and other nonsense so I won't.

Just 2 things before we move to another subject that maybe brings a smile on your face. If only people would smile more, we wouldn't be in such a mess.
First the serious stuff:
1. Just a question no mass media journalist seems to ask: if MH17 was shot down by a rocket, why is there shrapnell damage to various sections of the airplane? With all propoaganda (from all sides) that started flowing minutes after MH17 went down, I found social media (twitter, youtube) to be very useful as it quickly uncovered lies and misinformation that was (purpously or not) reported in mass media. With the 100 year commemoration of WWI it makes me think: if social media would hae been around in 1914, would the people have been able to prevent war from errupting? And the other way around, if social media would not have been around today, would MH17 and the mass media reports have pushed us helplessly into another period of cold war (at best) or war (at worst)?

2. On July 15, something happened that did not hit the mass media in our Western world and it should have as it will fundamentally change the world as we know it today. The BRICS set up their own "IMF", providing it with capital and undertaking to trade beteen them not in US dollars but through currency swaps. You can not overestimate the importance of BRICS telling the world "scr#w the US Dollar". The US will not take this lightly and if BRICS is succesful it will mark the beginning of the end of US (Dollar) world dominance. Here's an excerpt from the press release:
"We are pleased to announce the signing of the Treaty for the establishment of the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) with an initial size of US$ 100 billion. This arrangement will have a positive precautionary effect, help countries forestall short-term liquidity pressures, promote further BRICS cooperation, strengthen the global financial safety net and complement existing international arrangements.... The Agreement is a framework for the provision of liquidity through currency swaps in response to actual or potential short-term balance of payments pressures."

That were the serious bits, now for the smiles:

With my change of job I upgraded from an old cell phone (the boring stuff that can only make phone calls and send a text messages), to a smartphone. I'm still struggling to make the smartphone do what I want it to, making me wonder why on earth they call it a 'smart'-phone. And then I came across this:

And my new job brought me to Farnborough for business! First time I went was back in 1990 and 1992. As I said during a speech I had to give during a reception: in those days the stars of the show were a big twin engined airliner from across the Atlantic and some fighter aircraft from a country that had just opened its borders. Since then the world has changed a lot. In those days I could spend 2 full days taking pictures at the threshold of runway 24. This time, although being there for a week, I could only sneek out once to get some quick shots. But hey, I'm not complaining!

The good thing about the WorldCup, library books and change of command

The good thing about the WorldCup football is that there is nothing to watch on tv if you don't like football (like me). So that leaves plenty of time to read a good book.
Number two of my recent harvest is now also consumed. 'Flash Boys' is written in the same investigative style we know from Michael Lewis. It tells the (true) breathtaking story of Wall Street boys who come to realise that they are getting screwed by HFT's (high frequency traders) an decide to fight them. It shows that even well meant regulation is just another tool for people apt in finding loopholes to take benefit. I wonder why there no Belgians on Wall Street... we're good in finding loopholes in regulations! Maybe the Russians are just better than us (lots of HFT firms are stacked with Russian traders).
The "benefit" for HFT firms equals billions of dollars per year. With >90% of all orders placed on the stock exchanges coming from HFT's and >50% of all orders executed coming from HFTs one can rightfully wonder if this is still worthy the name of investing. Afterall they only hold shares for some microseconds and only execute an order when they can act as middle man: meaning only when they have someone to sell it from and someone else to sell it to, so they never take any risk either. The book is highly recommended except if you have some shares yourself and suffer from imsomnia, then reading the book will not help you...


With that book being finished I was strolling around my local library desparatly trying to find something else to read. And it struck me that the fate of library books are to be rejected more than chosen while owned books are read once but cherrished forever. I'm still recovering from that rare moment of insight...


On June 12, I was invited to attend the official ceremony of the change of command of one of the Belgian airforce basis. The ceremony was very impressive and the reception afterwards very well attended! As the picture below tells you I was sitting on the second row :-)